We would expect the merchant ships to adjust their route to hug the Ukrainian controlled coast and then use Romanian territorial waters. A merchant ship is no match for any of these. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has a number of warships including some of the smaller missile corvettes, which could be used. The most obvious way is with surface warships. It can carry torpedoes and anti-ship missiles.įollowing a reestablishment of a ‘no sailing zone’, Russia could attack ships sailing to/from Odesa. RFS Krasnodar, one of the KILO class submarines, surfaces after conducting weapons training in 2021. The article will briefly list some of the naval / military options available to Russia to reestablish the blockade:įile image. However, one question which comes up is what Russia could do to reduce or prevent grain shipments from Ukraine if the deal collapses? It is a complex political topic which I will leave to others. Whether the deal will be renewed is subject of speculation. The latest iteration of the deal is set to expire on July 18. This is important to the world, and to the economies of Ukraine and Russia. Starting in July 2022, the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) allows the export of grain from the Black Sea. An international deal was sought to allow innocent merchant trade to resume. Grain shipments, vital for world food stability, were stopped. When Russia’s planned quick victory didn’t materialize, the wider impact of this blockade quickly became evident. The blockade was never legally established but was, in practice, absolute. This was accompanied by a warning (read ‘threat’) to shipping that Russia could not guarantee the safety in the northern Black Sea. Several merchant ships were attacked, likely by Russian forces. (Alternative Title: How Russia Could Torpedo The Grain Deal)įrom the first day of its 2022 invasion, Russia enforced a blockade of Ukrainian ports. Ways Russia Could Attack Merchant Ships If Black Sea Grain Initiative Ends
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